Drawing Conclusions

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Identifying which conclusion logically follows from a set of given premises.

Drawing conclusions is the process of determining what logically follows from a set of stated facts or premises. A valid conclusion must be supported by the given information without requiring additional assumptions. This skill is central to critical thinking because it requires careful analysis of what the premises actually establish, avoiding over-generalization and unwarranted leaps of logic.

Given premises P1, P2, ..., Pn: find conclusion C such that P1 ∧ P2 ∧ ... ∧ Pn → C

• Premises: 'Renewable energy costs dropped 80% in 10 years' + 'Coal plants are closing due to cost.' Conclusion: 'Economics is driving the shift from coal to renewables.'
• Premises: 'Traffic doubled in 5 years' + 'Public transit cut service by 30%.' Conclusion: 'Reduced public transit likely contributed to increased congestion.'
• Premises: 'E-book sales plateaued' + 'Physical book sales rose 5% annually.' Conclusion: 'Readers continue to value physical books despite digital availability.'

How to recognize it

• Check that the conclusion follows from the premises without introducing new information
• Ensure the conclusion does not overstate what the premises support (avoid extreme language like 'always' or 'never')
• Look for the option that connects both premises rather than addressing only one
• Eliminate conclusions that contradict the given information

Common mistakes

• Choosing an extreme conclusion when the premises only support a moderate one
• Selecting a conclusion that addresses only one premise while ignoring the other
• Confusing a possible implication with what is directly supported by the premises

Practice guidance

Critical Thinking